It has been reported that sources at a major client of investment house ThinkEquity say that the firm considers a Microsoft (MSFT) link-up with Yahoo! (YHOO) in the search business to be “imminent”. The comments were made by analyst William Morrison. ThinkEquity did not have an immediate comment.
Sources beyond ThinkEquity speculate that under the terms of the arrangement, Yahoo! will be paid $3 billion upfront and will get 11o% of the revenue that its searches provide after traffic acquisition costs in each of the first two years. In the third year, that figure would go to 90%.
Microsoft will then have control of 30% of the US search market if they can close the deal with Yahoo. Given that Microsoft’s own Bing is on the rise also, it will then only be about taking share away from Google. However, I can see how this deal with allow Microsoft to take marketshare from Google, Google has much better technology and a huge amount of brand loyalty. comScore put Google’s US June search share flat at 65%, Yahoo! at 19.5%, down .5%, and Microsoft at 8.4%, up .4%.
For Yahoo!, the transaction would give it the opportunity to lock in a substantial revenue stream from search and potentially save several hundred million dollars over the next three years by cutting development personnel and costs. If the transaction materializes, Yahoo!’s share could jump $4 or $5.
The soap opera that is Microsoft bid for Yahoo is continuing. Firstly it is reported by the WSJ that Yahoo is closing in on a merger with AOL. If the deal goes through, the two companies would combine their web and internet based services. Yahoo! would reportedly use some of the revenue from a merger with Time Warner/AOL to buy back a whole bunch of stock which woudl help the company fend off any further unwanted advances from Microsoft.
While at the same time it is reported that Yahoo has begun testing out Search Ads from Google. Then Microsoft hit back with the following statement about the search testing:
From Brad Smith, Microsoft’s General Counsel:
“Any definitive agreement between Yahoo! and Google would consolidate over 90% of the search advertising market in Google’s hands. This would make the market far less competitive, in sharp contrast to our own proposal to acquire Yahoo! We will assess closely all of our options. Our proposal remains the only alternative put forward that offers Yahoo! shareholders full and fair value for their shares, gives every shareholder a vote on the future of the company, and enhances choice for content creators, advertisers, and consumers.â€
Well, what can I see happening? I expect that AOL and Yahoo will potentially merge, but this it might happen in about 6 months time. In terms of search advertising between Google and Yahoo, im sure this cant continue because of the amount of marketshare they will have between them. Finally, Microsoft have no chance of purchasing Yahoo, I cant see it happening because Yahoo shareholders and directors would have already agreed if there was something that was going to happen.
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