My 2008 Prediction Analysis

Back at the start of 2008 I made 11 predictions of what was going to happen in 2008. I must admit most of these predictions were very bold and possibly never going to happen, but what the hell thought it was a good punt.

My Predictions for 2008:

1. Microsoft will start purchasing companies as Steve Bullmer predicted and one the key acquisitions will be SixApart.
2. Gmail will move from the online space to also be available offline.
3. The mobile web and applications will become more mainstream and more companies and products will just be based for mobiles.
4. Zoho will be purchased. I dont think it will be either Google or Microsoft.
5. Technorati will be heading towards the Dead Pool.
6. Digg will be sold but I think for only about $200 million and not the $300 million they are looking for.
7. AOLs Platform A will launch and will really shake up the industry. It will offer a great third option to Google and Microsoft.
8. Hybrid Applications will become the norm. Microsoft will be move their Office applications online and compete will Google and Zoho. While Google will move their applications offline.
9. More Ad network marketplaces will launch and start to grab more of the market and transparency between publishers and advertisers will become a lot less.
10. A new social network will launch and quickly compete with Facebook, Myspace and Bebo. This social network will be invite only and will have some very exclusive features.
11. Napster will slowly be running out of money and wishing they had changed their structure (especially towards DRMs), soon to be in the Dead Pool.

My 2008 Prediction Results:

1. Pass. Microsoft acquired Powerset for $100 million, Farecast for $115 million, Danger Acquisition, FastSearch for $1.23 billion, in total 15 acquistions for the year.
2. Fail. Gmail hasnt moved offline to actually start fighting with Outlook. I think Google is aiming to keep Gmail online and maybe one day they might move it out of beta and probably launch an offline version at the same time.
3. Pass. 2008 has seen a huge growth in mobile technology and applications. The iPhone has made a big mark in 2008 and its applications are making millions for Apple everyday. Additionally, sites like Brightkite are launching which are solely based for mobiles.
4. Fail. Zoho wasnt purchased in 2008, but it remains a strong contender for acquisition in 2009.
5. Pass. Technorati is really losing its way. They arent in the dead pool at the moment, but they are losing site of what they are actually providing and traffic is dropping. Technorati also launched their own advertising network along with a few acquisitions, but doesnt seem to be really making them much at all.
6. Fail. Digg was not sold in 2008 even though they have pretty much been in sales talks for the whole of the year. Now they have probably missed the boat. Recently they were reported to be losing a huge amount of cash every quarter.
7. Fail. AOLs Platform A launched and has been combined to make a very strong display offering, but they havent made the real inroads they were looking for.
8. Fail. Microsoft missed the boat again in 2008 and they didnt move their applications online, and vice versa Google didnt move theirs offline. Maybe these companies are just going to do what they are best at, Google online and Microsoft offline.
9. Fail. There were a lot of launches and funding obtained by ad networks, but not many marketplaces launched in 2008.
10. Fail. This was always going to be very difficult, but do you class Twitter as a social network? haha. No real new social networks launched that could actually compete, bit of a shame really.
11. Pass. Napster is in big trouble, they were reportedly running out of money fast and searching for a buyer. Napster finally found a buyer being Bestbuy. However, this isnt going to save them in the long run.

So what do you think of my results. I predicted 4 out of the 11, which isnt too bad. Most of the predictions werent very specific, so I plan on making more predictions in 2009 and being quite specific on what is going to happen. Let me know your thoughts and if you have any predictions for 2009.